Monday, February 2, 2015

January Smogon stats are now up

With Greninja gone, who's going to pick up the slack?

Well, Keldeo, who else? It went from #12 to #3 in one short month... and keep in mind, Greninja was only banned a third of the way through the month, so #2 may be achievable in a full month without Greninja. #1, though... nope. Landorus-T looks more untouchable than late gen 4 Scizor at this point. It's used so much that it's kind of funny that it hasn't been suspected yet. I think the reason starts with "91" and ends with "speed". As for the Dark side of the equation, Bisharp is also on the rise, from #11 to #6. It's amazing how, for a game where debuffs are typically terrible, a Pokémon centered around countering debuffs can be so great. If you ever wanted to see just how dominant Stealth Rock used to be, a move that serves the purpose of countering it manages to be just this ubiquitous despite giving a free +2 attack boost to a top 10 Pokémon. Intimidate being turned from a -1 to a +1 also helps a lot, which is great when it's the only ability the most common Pokémon on the ladder can pack. I guess it's also part of the reason why Sticky Web, once slated to be the best non-Fairy new gen 6 move, is such a non-factor nowadays.

Also of note is the interesting rise of Slowbro, from #19 up to #14. I'm assuming it's also partly collateral for Greninja going bye-bye. I just want to point out that whereas the Mega variant was slightly more popular last month, the Regenerator set comes out on top rather comfortably in January. Still, Mega Slowbro is far from the non-factor I and many others expected it to be - if nothing else, it does the Calm Mind schtick a lot better than the regular form, Regenerator be damned.

Who would've thought Lopunny was going to be such a powerhouse? The "new and shiny" factor is pretty much gone, and Lopunny is still going up (#29 to #21)! Guess the world was just crying out for a Scrappy Fighting-type more competent (and especially faster) than Pancham, huh? Can't say no to STAB Fake Out, either. Sableye, Altaria and Diancie are keeping up the pace... can't say the same for Sceptile and Swampert, though. Rain teams took a pretty big step back this month, and the new premier abuser really suffered as a result. Beedrill also came crashing down, so a promotion to OU is just about impossible at this point. The increased competition for that mega slot gives a much bigger opportunity cost to any and every mega, and it's becoming really obvious.

Another result of this is the fact that both Heracross and Pinsir were demoted to UU. Remember when Aegislash was banned, some people argued it shouldn't because it was the biggest check to Pinsir, Heracross, Gardevoir and Medicham, and those four would rampage with Aegislash gone? Fast forward a couple of months, and Gardevoir is the only one still in OU. Of course Gallade is a pretty big deterrent when it comes to Medicham, but it took a pretty sharp drop itself (#34 to #44). Guess Lopunny really is the king of Fighting-types, huh?

One surprise arrival in the OU tier is Raikou (up from #54 all the way to #35). To be honest I'm not really sure why it got so popular so quickly, because Zapdos is as popular as ever and Manectric and Thundurus-I also got a nice boost this month.

...you're wondering if I forgot something, right? Of course I didn't. January 2015 will go down in history as the month where Contrary Serperior was released, and after many, MANY tiering changes through the month, it looks like UU is where it'll be making its home after a quickban from NU and a suspect test in RU. OU? Unfortunately that's a little high, it came in at #43 this month despite being one of the most anticipated events ever, although there's the fact that it wasn't available for the first week of the month to consider. Theorymon about the best moves to put on it turned out to be off in many cases - I've seen some people say either Glare or Knock Off was an absolute must instead of being stuck inflicting paper cuts on the likes of Mega Venusaur, Talonflame or Heatran, yet in the end the non-Leaf Storm/Dragon Pulse slots were better filled by Hidden Power Fire or Ground, Giga Drain and even Substitute. In the end, the poor thing was done in by the fact that if you want to do anything, you MUST use Leaf Storm on your very first turn, because 75 special attack is absolute garbage, and I'm pretty sure not even an unboosted Hidden Power Ground against Heatran is going to do an awful lot, relatively speaking.

In ubers, Groudon outranks all of Arceus' forms put together for the second time in a row, and Ground is actually the second most common Arceus type now simply because it's Primal Groudon's only weakness. Speaking of that monstrosity's weaknesses, the Blue Orb is still bog standard on Kyogre just to get rid of the Desolate Land-acquired immunity to Water, even though it's likely suboptimal against just about everything else.

If you ever wanted an idea of how grossly overpowered Mega Salamence is, it's a top 5 Pokémon IN UBERS. It beats out the likes of Darkrai, Lugia, Yveltal, Mewtwo... oh right, Mewtwo is all the way down to #9 now. Anyway, Mega Salamence is also great against Primal Groudon, thanks to a handy immunity to Earthquake and Precipice Blades, a resistance to Fire Punch and Lava Plume, and Intimidate shenanigans to boot. Really, Mega Salamence was a mistake. The one reason why it was well out of OU was because Dragonite existed, not because it was a bad Pokémon on its own. I'm pretty sure that eventually, the power creep (and maybe the increasing opportunity cost of using a specific mega) is going to catch up to most of the currently banned megas (Kangaskhan is admittedly easier to deal with because Parental Bond itself can just be nerfed) at some point in the future. Salamence on the other hand... it's going to take a long time.

A quick look to AG while I'm at it... well, it's a bit more varied than last month. Rayquaza and Klefki both dropped sharply - guess people were just sick of their Mega Rayquazas dying to Swagplay. Groudon and Kyogre usage is also down, while most other Pokémon (except those with Magic Bounce) had varying increases to their percentages. The big winner this month, though, is Talonflame. Yep, even when there are no rules and no banlists priority Brave Bird is just as much of a terror as when all the rules and banlists are there.

17 comments:

  1. We're in an era where Wobbuffet is bottom tier, Blissey is UU, two starter Pokemon are in ubers, Poison is a viable offensive type and Sableye is an S-rank pokemon (Well, mega Sableye at least). Amazing how things change.

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    1. Don't forget Kyogre and Palkia being the worst of their trios, and Suicune just barely escaping that fate.

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    2. Truly these are strange times.

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  2. For what it's worth, I'd be surprised if Pinsir didn't make its way back into OU sooner or later. It's still ridiculously fucking good, but there are shiny new things to play with and there's more competition for a Mega slot. Still, it's every bit as viable as - say - Gallade; it's just that it's one of a more substantial number of similarly potent offensive Megas now.

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  3. Oh, and, yeah - Mega Salamence is absolutely stupid.

    I am willing to bet you that Deoxys-A will drop to OU in a future generation before Mega Mence does. Its combination of power, bulk, and speed is absolutely unwholesome; it can do whatever it wants, and it can do it damn well to boot.

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    1. It's better than vanilla Rayquaza is and ever was, for what it's worth. If you want to see how long its stay in ubers is going to be...

      As for Pinsir, I remember there being talk of a possible suspect test at some point. Now it just might happen... in UU. But yeah, being overly reliant on your Mega Stone is going to become a huge liability sooner or latter. We're already feeling the effects, with a bunch of ridiculously good megas already slipping to UU/BL because of the one-per-team rule.

      And I don't really agree with the "shiny new thing" factor at this point. We've essentially been able to play around with the new megas since mid-October, and at this point it's clear that the likes of Lopunny, Altaria and Sableye are there on merit.

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    2. Oh, shit yeah re: Lopunny and co. ORAS added tons of excellent new Megas.

      I'm expecting Pinsir to wind up making its way back into (low) OU largely at the expense of things like Swampert, Beedrill, and company. Basically, I have a feeling that by this time next year the second-string Megas will have wholly filtered out of any actual use in OU just because there are so many ridiculously good ones.

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  4. The thing that gets me is Terrakion is now UU. That thing had been a powerhouse and now it is pathetic compared to Lopunny. Amazing how base 129 attack and 108 speed with close combat and edgequake, plus a resistance to SR AND an attack boost when it takes a knock off, is now not even a threat with the huge power creep that is mega pokemon. I would have to say this is due to slowbro, landorus, and the aforementioned Lopunny. Landorus and slowbro wall it and Lopunny is just better. I'm still shocked it is UU.

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    1. I guess with Terrakion, the saying 'play too close to the fire and you get burnt' applies to it.

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    2. Terrakion was UU during Aegislash's reign of terror, so it's not like it's completely new.

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  5. I suppose all of Terrakion's 7 weaknesses are ugly, while nearly all of its resistances are meaningless. But yeah, something with 129 attack and close combat, at such an oddly high speed tier is a very strange thing to send down to UU. It'll join Pinsir in BL soon enough, I'd wager.

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  6. Off topic, but did you see how this guy entered the hoenn hall of fame with just 2 level 1 pokemon in his party?

    http://www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/2umr10/i_just_managed_to_enter_the_hall_of_fame_with_two/

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    1. That's honestly pretty damn cool.

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    2. "TL;DR: Finally found a use for those 200 Potions!"
      This has got to be my favorite part of the entire thing.

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  7. In less-Pokemon related news, are you interested at all in the upcoming Xenoblade Chronicles X direct they're holding on Friday? Apparently there's gonna be a hell of a lot more gameplay footage, though I doubt we'll get a North American release date anytime soon.

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    1. I haven't been keeping up with that at all, so not really. It's not like I'm gonna buy it at launch anyway.

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    2. It's looked really solid to me right now.
      Aside from some minor improvements like being able to sprint and being able to alter classes/weapons for characters, most of the game has been seriously done from the ground up. Mechs seem super useful and fun considering the world is more than five times the size of Xenoblade's world (Jesus Christ) and are playing into combat pretty smoothly. The world isn't as creative a concept as Bionis/Mechonis are, but the environments still feel incredibly dynamic and distinctive (check out this trailer for what I mean: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvpNXhzscjQ)

      The only thing I'm not exactly looking forward to is having a silent protagonist that's customizable (considering how strong a lead Shulk was in the original). But overall it seems super fresh while still having Xenoblade feel to it. Who knows though? It's still just 2 months away from releasing in Japan. (April 28th)

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